The political unrest in Bangladesh, marked by the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina amid widespread protests, has significant implications for the country’s relations with India. Hasina’s departure, following a month of violent demonstrations primarily driven by discontent over a controversial job quota system, has led to the formation of an interim government under Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman.
This transition raises concerns for India, which has historically viewed Hasina as a key ally in a region where it faces challenges from both Pakistan and China. The Awami League’s long-standing governance fostered strong bilateral ties, characterized by cooperation on security, trade, and infrastructure development. However, the emergence of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, both of which have historically adopted anti-India stances, could shift the political landscape.
The potential for increased radicalization and the influence of external powers, particularly China, complicate India’s strategic interests. As the situation evolves, India must navigate its diplomatic relations carefully, balancing its historical ties with the Awami League against the need to engage with a potentially hostile interim government, while also addressing concerns about regional stability and security.
Jargon
Quota System: A policy that reserves a certain percentage of government jobs for specific groups, which has been a source of contention and protests in Bangladesh.
Interim Government: A temporary government formed to manage the country until new elections can be held, often seen as a stabilizing measure during political transitions.
Jamaat-e-Islami: An Islamist political party in Bangladesh known for its historical opposition to India and its ties to Pakistan, which may gain influence in the new political landscape.
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP): The main opposition party in Bangladesh, traditionally less friendly towards India compared to the Awami League, and known for its anti-India rhetoric.
Refugee Influx: The potential movement of people across borders due to instability, can create humanitarian and security challenges for neighbouring countries like India.
Viewpoints 💭
‘Left’ Viewpoint
Ideological Differences
‘Right’ Viewpoint
The protests in Bangladesh are a manifestation of democratic expression against authoritarian governance, highlighting the need for systemic reforms and greater political freedoms.
India’s cautious stance on the situation reflects a reluctance to interfere, but there’s a moral imperative to support democratic processes and human rights in neighboring countries.
The potential rise of anti-India sentiments and parties in Bangladesh could be mitigated through diplomatic engagement and support for inclusive governance.
Economic instability and the crackdown on protests in Bangladesh could have adverse effects on regional stability, urging India to play a more active role in facilitating dialogue.
The involvement of external powers like China in Bangladesh’s political landscape is concerning, but India should focus on building strong, mutually beneficial relations rather than viewing it through a competitive lens.
While the left views the protests as a democratic struggle against authoritarianism, advocating for India’s moral support for human rights, the right perceives these as a security threat, emphasizing strategic and national interests.
The left criticizes India’s non-interventionist stance as a missed opportunity to support democracy, whereas the right views it as a cautious approach to avoid escalating tensions and preserving strategic interests.
Concerns over China’s influence in Bangladesh are common to both, but while the left advocates for diplomatic engagement to build relations, the right sees it as a competition, urging a strategic counter to Chinese moves.
The potential rise of anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh is viewed by the left as a challenge to be addressed through inclusive governance and diplomacy. In contrast, the right sees it as a justification for a more assertive foreign policy to protect India’s interests.
Economic implications of the unrest are seen differently; the left focuses on the adverse effects on regional stability and trade, suggesting a more active role for India in facilitating dialogue, while the right emphasizes securing trade routes and agreements to ensure economic interests are not compromised.
The political turmoil in Bangladesh poses a security threat to India, particularly with the rise of parties like the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, known for their anti-India stance.
India’s strategic interests, including counter-terrorism and trade, could be jeopardized if a hostile government comes to power in Bangladesh.
The protests and subsequent instability offer a strategic opportunity for India to strengthen its influence in Bangladesh, countering Chinese expansionism.
India must prioritize its national security and economic interests, potentially supporting a stable and friendly regime in Bangladesh.
The involvement of ISI and China in supporting anti-India elements in Bangladesh’s protests highlights the need for a robust foreign policy to protect India’s interests in the region.
Prominent Voices 📣
From the ‘Left’
From the ‘Right’
Dr. Muhammad Yunus (Nobel Laureate): Criticized India’s stance on the Bangladesh protests, urging for a more supportive approach towards democracy. 1
Rahul Gandhi (Leader of the Indian National Congress): Expressed concerns about the strengthening of anti-India forces post-Hasina’s resignation. 23
Happymon Jacob (Indian foreign policy expert): Advises India to avoid intervening in Bangladesh’s internal politics. 4
Peter Haas (U.S. Ambassador to Bangladesh): Advocated for inclusive elections in Bangladesh to address concerns about democratic backsliding. 56
Narendra Modi (Prime Minister of India): Emphasized the complexity of the situation in Bangladesh for India, highlighting the need for careful diplomatic navigation. 78
Ajit Doval (Indian National Security Advisor): Stressed the importance of India’s relationship with Bangladesh, highlighting concerns for stability amid the protests. 73
Admiral Dinesh Tripathi (Indian Navy Chief): Aimed to strengthen defense ties and explore maritime cooperation with Bangladesh. 9
S Jaishankar (External Affairs Minister of India): Informed about India’s close monitoring of developments in Bangladesh and emphasized border security. 108
Anil Trigunayat (Former Indian Ambassador): Highlighted the security implications for India due to instability in Bangladesh, including potential refugee influx and external powers gaining influence. 116
Harsh Vardhan Shringla (Former Foreign Secretary of India): Emphasized the risks of a troubled relationship with Bangladesh, which could lead to support for insurgent groups and instability in India’s Northeast. 12